Boing Boing syndicated an interesting post on "Bad Predictions about the Future"

"At the Institute for the Future where I'm a researcher, we always say that the future is impossible to predict. The good news is, you don't have to. It's better to focus on foresight.Foresight is a particularly good way to stimulate insights. While prediction is impossible, provocation is easy. Insights arise from differences: different ideas, different angles, and different moods. If insights were obvious, everyone would be having them. What new development might be created—given the external future forces that are at play? This is a search for “Aha’s!” It is a search for insights, a search for coherence in the midst of confusion."

With that in mind, here are my predictions on what the future holds. This is a thought exercise I like to put myself through to help me think of new ideas and opportunities.

What will the world look like 100 years from now? Here's the way I see it....

Global Politics

The United Nations will cease to Exist. It will be replaced by a "World Union of Qualified States" - but with a far catchier title than what I just came up with. This will be different from the UN in the sense that only states that meet certain minimum criteria in terms of such Human Development Measures such as Press Freedom, Healthcare Access, Gender Equality, Voting Rights etc will qualify.

Political concepts such as term-limits, voting rights for people of all races and genders, multi-party democracies and separation of church and state will be codified after sociological studies prove their superiority. To be accepted into the elite "World Union" countries will have to adopt these minimal standards. This will be much the same way the European Union insists on nations meeting specific criteria before joining their elite club.

Failed states like North Korea would not get the privilege of joining this exlusive club.

Fortunately 100 years from now...there will be very few "failed states".

As the idea of nations and race becomes more obsolete, failed states will not be tolerated. States like Turkmenistan, Cuba, North Korea and Iran will be annexed and converted into democracies. There is, after all, little difference between a North and South Korean - there are the same race and people. Only one group is imprisoned by an obscene dictator while the other group has all the privilidges of freedom and democracy. We allow millions of North Koreans to be imprisoned and impoverished because of our outdated concept of 'nationhood' and 'sovereignty'.

If a political party or leader refuses to honor the rights of their citizens or honor term-limits and free elections, the rest of the world will simply unite and toss them out in the interest of the people of the nation they plunder. Nations don't matter. People do.

I also predict that the following ideas will be tossed into the garbage bin of history: Communism, Apartheid, Rule by Monarchy, Theocratic Rule, Political Islam (religion and politics should never, ever mix), and the idea of National Religion (why make unproven belief systems official?).

Economy

Self-employment will be widespread except in the poorest parts of the planet. Technologies such at the Internet will enable millions to go into business for themselves. (blatant plug: you might want to read my book on the topic of Internet entrepreneurship if it interests you).

Elite business people will be provided World Union passports that will essentially allow them to live, travel and work in any member nation. Their taxes will be paid to the World Union organization. One more step towards to a global government.

A common global unit of currency modelled on the Euro will be developed.

Television, Radio and Newspapers will become obsolete. We will get all the information we need, personalized and sent to us via the Internet. A global marketplace for information emerges. Countries will no longer be able to control what their people hear and see. This will help usher in democracy and help bring about the much needed decline of religiosity.

It will also level the playing the feel and keep us all a lot more connected. A 12 year old child in Sudan with a $50 laptop will have the same access to information as a kid in New York. (The only difference may be download speeds).

There will be a downside...cultures and languages that cannot compete in this global information pool will subside and die out. As more and more children start speaking English much of the world's diversity get's reduced to museum exhibits. Will this be a bad thing? No - it's been happening for ages. Anyone spoken Anatolian or Tocharian lately?

As bad governance becomes a thing of the past - poverty is reduced to only 5% of the global population. Africa, a continent that I firmly belief needs good governance more than debt-relief or charity will finally get a chance to rise up.

The global population levels out at 11 Billion and begins to shrink.

Global Warming will not be a threat. In the the next 100 years we will discover ways to control the Earth's weather in ways that will balance out the current negative aspects of Global Warming.

Nor will any significant ecological disasters take place. Genetics will reach a stage where we will be able to replicate any species from a sample of their genes.

Life spans in developed nations will reach 100 years.

More predictions on Science, Society and Religion to follow in my next post....boy this is fun!